The View from Taiwan segnala un interessante articolo di Robert Marquand del Christian Science Monitor sullo stato odierno dell'esercito della Cina Popolare.
La Cina per lungo tempo ha avuto un esercito inadeguato alle sue ambizioni di essere una grande nazione. Ma oggi il quadro sta rapidamente cambiando:
In a surprisingly short time, China has accomplished
two feats. One, it has focused its energy and wealth on creating an
army within an army. It has devoted huge amounts of capital to create a
small high-tech army within its old 2.2 million-member rifle and
shoe-leather force.
Questo "esercito nell'esercito", che ammonterebbe a più di 300.000 uomini, sarebbe specializzato nel
conduct lightning attacks on smaller foes, using an
all-out missile attack designed to paralyze, and a modern sea and air
attack coordinated by high-tech communications. In other words, this
new modern force is designed to attack Taiwan.
In effetti diversi commentatori (per esempio Minnick) da un paio d'anni a questa parte avevano prospettato la possibilità che l'esercito cinese possa intervenire a Taiwan non con una invasione tipo sbarco in Normandia (a cui Taiwan sarebbe più preparata e che, soprattutto, darebbe modo agli USA di intervenire in tempo) ma con un devastante colpo a sorpresa volto a decapitare la dirigenza taiwanese ed a spezzare le poche importanti linee di comunicazione.
Inoltre, sempre secondo Marquand,
Second, China has taken painful but successful steps
to create a "defense industrial base," or weapons-building capability.
The PLA has improved its factory quality control and its ability to
adapt foreign technology. It is bringing an indigenous small-wing F-10
fighter off the production line, and it is moving rapidly toward a
"blue water" Navy with ships built in China.
E come si chiede qualcuno ....
"They are buying and developing capability whose
only use is against the US military," said an Asia-based US Air Force
colonel. "The programs we can see are designed to combat a carrier
battle group. Who is it that has carrier battle groups?"
Interessante anche la conclusione ...
Historically,
in fact, China is not an aggressor. It rarely attacks. But then, what
is called "China" has moved only in the late 20th century from a
sprawling "civilization" to a nation in the modern sense. Moreover, the
sense of national pride in China is powerful. As one rather liberal
intellectual told the Monitor, "In our hearts, most of us want China to
be great - we feel deeply a desire to help run Asia and the world."
What concerns some American China experts is that creating a modern
army will also create the dynamic to use a modern army. Analysts like
Mulvenon point to possible unintended consequences of a buildup.
"What I worry about is the military influencing foreign policy," he
says, "[decisionmakers] using the military they have paid so much for
like a tool in their kit ... as leverage in certain situations.... That
can be how bad things get started."
